BEARISHIn depth · 4/5

Market in 'max pain' stair-step decline

The hosts described the current market as the 'most obvious stair step walk down,' where investors are hedged with expensive puts that aren't paying off, but haven't yet degrossed their long positions, leading to sustained selling pressure.

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 77 MENTIONS · 42 EPISODES · 16 SHOWS

30 JUN 2025 — 14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO

18 SUPPORT · 7 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 50 MENTIONED

30 JUN 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 7 MENTIONS
20 EPISODES BETWEEN · 33 MENTIONS
1. 9 JUL 2025
  GRANT'S CURRENT YIELD PODCAST
  - Gold and Bitcoin share rising volatility trait
2. 31 JUL 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Defined-risk options for cattle event risk
3. 3 OCT 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
  - Retail call buying inverts single-stock call skew
  - Look-back put as year-end S&P protection
  - Use inverted call skew for single-stock call spreads
4. 10 OCT 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Use low volatility to buy convexity hedges
5. 16 OCT 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - Convex bet on dollar strength via euro puts
6. 22 OCT 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Not all printed commodity vol is tradable
  - Financialization creates signatures in commodity vol
7. 6 NOV 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE · 5 MENTIONS
  - VIX as a market bottom indicator
  - Risks of the covered-call income boom · CHALLENGES
  - Opportunity in taking the other side of option selling
  - Nasdaq-focused strategy hedged with S&P VIX
  - Trade VIX futures by analyzing contango decay
8. 7 NOV 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Earnings day stock volatility at financial crisis levels
  - Selling options to capture retail bid for income
9. 20 NOV 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Relative value preferred over directional bets
10. 21 NOV 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Systematic options via volatility forecasting
11. 25 NOV 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - VIX 25/65 call spread as a year-end hedge
12. 5 DEC 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Optionalized long China yuan trade
13. 16 DEC 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Data-centric client flow analysis for sell-side desks
  - Not all losing flow is bad for the book
  - Analyzing client edge across different time frames
14. 15 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Retail speculation concentrated in high-volatility names
15. 28 JAN 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Long-dated options as portfolio risk management
16. 5 FEB 2026
  WHAT BITCOIN DID
  - Cautious 2026 outlook with convexity-seeking hedges
17. 26 FEB 2026
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Carry trade as a low-risk ag spread strategy
18. 27 FEB 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Use call spreads for EM after rally
19. 27 FEB 2026
  MASTERS IN BUSINESS
  - Implied vs realized volatility is the options seller's edge
20. 5 MAR 2026
  THE DERIVATIVE · 4 MENTIONS
  - Covered call and structured product writing as a vol distortion
  - Long vol as a low-frequency, high-magnitude return source
  - Retail flow in zero-DTE options creates gamma opportunities
  - Sumo wrestling metaphor for market convexity
13 MAR 2026 · CHALLENGES
FORWARD GUIDANCE
- Market in 'max pain' stair-step decline · THIS IDEA
14 EPISODES BETWEEN · 25 MENTIONS
1. 13 MAR 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Institutional hedging via macro ETF shorts
2. 13 MAR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 6 MENTIONS
3. 15 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Use options when outcome range is wide
4. 19 MAR 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Cash-secured puts as a value investor's tool
5. 19 MAR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Long gamma as a core investing philosophy
6. 19 MAR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Food inflation call spread using elevated vol
7. 2 APR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - VIX call setup before August 2024 spike
8. 10 APR 2026
  THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  - Option skew signaled bullish CPI bet
9. 11 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS · 5 MENTIONS
10. 13 APR 2026
  ANIMAL SPIRITS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Index-level options avoid capping winners
  - Covered call strategies offer multiple ways to win
11. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Portfolio protection cheap via VIX puts
12. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 2 MENTIONS
  - October-November VIX futures calendar spread trade
  - Short UVXY straddles paired with short SVIX
13. 1 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
  - Positively convex: more risk is less risk
14. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Scaling into and out of inverse VIX
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Options market volume remains robust post-June
7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 4 MENTIONS
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- Volatility risk premium as persistent return source
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Volatility supply from yield products dampens realized vol
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Covered calls as a tax-efficient yield enhancer
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 3 MENTIONS

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD