BALANCEDCore thesis · 5/5

Carry trade as a low-risk ag spread strategy

The guest argued that buying calendar spreads in grain futures - long the nearby month and short a deferred month - is a low-risk strategy that pays for patience and offers limited downside.

South Africanon The Derivative

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 77 MENTIONS · 42 EPISODES · 16 SHOWS

30 JUN 2025 — 14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO

18 SUPPORT · 7 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 50 MENTIONED

30 JUN 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 7 MENTIONS
16 EPISODES BETWEEN · 26 MENTIONS
1. 9 JUL 2025
  GRANT'S CURRENT YIELD PODCAST
  - Gold and Bitcoin share rising volatility trait
2. 31 JUL 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Defined-risk options for cattle event risk
3. 3 OCT 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
4. 10 OCT 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Use low volatility to buy convexity hedges
5. 16 OCT 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - Convex bet on dollar strength via euro puts
6. 22 OCT 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Not all printed commodity vol is tradable
  - Financialization creates signatures in commodity vol
7. 6 NOV 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE · 5 MENTIONS
8. 7 NOV 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Earnings day stock volatility at financial crisis levels
  - Selling options to capture retail bid for income
9. 20 NOV 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Relative value preferred over directional bets
10. 21 NOV 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Systematic options via volatility forecasting
11. 25 NOV 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - VIX 25/65 call spread as a year-end hedge
12. 5 DEC 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Optionalized long China yuan trade
13. 16 DEC 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 3 MENTIONS
14. 15 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Retail speculation concentrated in high-volatility names
15. 28 JAN 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Long-dated options as portfolio risk management
16. 5 FEB 2026
  WHAT BITCOIN DID
  - Cautious 2026 outlook with convexity-seeking hedges
26 FEB 2026
THE DERIVATIVE
- Carry trade as a low-risk ag spread strategy · THIS IDEA
18 EPISODES BETWEEN · 32 MENTIONS
1. 27 FEB 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Use call spreads for EM after rally
2. 27 FEB 2026
  MASTERS IN BUSINESS
  - Implied vs realized volatility is the options seller's edge
3. 5 MAR 2026
  THE DERIVATIVE · 4 MENTIONS
4. 13 MAR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Market in 'max pain' stair-step decline
5. 13 MAR 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Institutional hedging via macro ETF shorts
6. 13 MAR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 6 MENTIONS
7. 15 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Use options when outcome range is wide
8. 19 MAR 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Cash-secured puts as a value investor's tool
9. 19 MAR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Long gamma as a core investing philosophy
10. 19 MAR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Food inflation call spread using elevated vol
11. 2 APR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - VIX call setup before August 2024 spike
12. 10 APR 2026
  THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  - Option skew signaled bullish CPI bet
13. 11 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS · 5 MENTIONS
14. 13 APR 2026
  ANIMAL SPIRITS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Index-level options avoid capping winners
  - Covered call strategies offer multiple ways to win
15. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Portfolio protection cheap via VIX puts
16. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 2 MENTIONS
  - October-November VIX futures calendar spread trade
  - Short UVXY straddles paired with short SVIX
17. 1 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
  - Positively convex: more risk is less risk
18. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Scaling into and out of inverse VIX
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Options market volume remains robust post-June
7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 4 MENTIONS
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- Volatility risk premium as persistent return source
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Volatility supply from yield products dampens realized vol
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Covered calls as a tax-efficient yield enhancer
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 3 MENTIONS

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD