BEARISHSubstantive discussion · 3/5

US valuations nearing 1999 peaks

The case was made that current US market valuations are approaching their 1999 peaks, a period followed by a decade of flat to negative returns for US large caps and tech.

PWL Capitalon The Rational Reminder Podcast

Sign in to read the full idea

The argument, what validates it, the risks discussed and hearing it from the source are for signed-in members. Free accounts read 3 ideas in full a day. No card required.

The story so far

CONTESTED · 51 MENTIONS · 41 EPISODES · 18 SHOWS

4 JUL 2025 — 13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO

21 SUPPORT · 9 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 19 MENTIONED

4 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE MEB FABER SHOW
- US household stock allocation at contrarian peak
12 EPISODES BETWEEN · 15 MENTIONS
1. 14 AUG 2025
  THE MEMO BY HOWARD MARKS
  - Elevated S&P 500 valuations signal poor forward returns
2. 5 SEP 2025
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - High CAPE ratio signals weak future returns
3. 9 SEP 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - US large caps overvalued, look elsewhere
4. 19 SEP 2025 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - US tech concentration not a 1999 bubble
5. 7 OCT 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Secular bull markets driven by multiple expansion
6. 10 OCT 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Elevated CAPE ratio suggests low future returns
7. 17 OCT 2025 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Market not in a dot-com style bubble
8. 18 NOV 2025
  THE BUSINESS BREW
  - S&P 500 faces decade of zero returns
9. 21 NOV 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW · 4 MENTIONS
10. 22 DEC 2025
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
  - High-multiple tech faces tough double-digit return math
11. 23 DEC 2025 · CHALLENGES
  THE LONG VIEW
  - International equities are cheap relative to the US
12. 24 DEC 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - US stock market in a major valuation bubble
1 JAN 2026
THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
- Market concentration not the issue, valuation is
- US valuations nearing 1999 peaks · THIS IDEA
- Concentration-future return link is noisy
21 EPISODES BETWEEN · 26 MENTIONS
1. 13 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Low double-digit equity returns on positive macro
2. 15 JAN 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Profit story is key for market direction
3. 27 JAN 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 2 MENTIONS
  - US overweight on earnings sustainability · CHALLENGES
  - High valuations don't imply mean reversion
4. 29 JAN 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Index concentration not a reliable predictor of returns
5. 30 JAN 2026
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - Case for trimming expensive US large-cap exposure
6. 2 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Shift from US equities to government debt
7. 3 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Anything but market cap weight for US stocks
  - Global diversification as a cure for home bias · CHALLENGES
8. 6 FEB 2026
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - S&P 500's high PE may be a new normal
9. 9 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - US market valuation debate: CAPE vs ERP
10. 13 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Valuation is the key long-term return predictor
  - Equity returns are not normally distributed
11. 17 FEB 2026 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Bull market continues, driven by earnings not multiples
12. 25 FEB 2026
  THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  - PE multiple compression as 2024 market story
13. 5 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Shiller CAPE signals low future stock returns
14. 30 MAR 2026
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - European equity repatriation story oversubscribed
15. 3 APR 2026
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - Prepare for modest returns and long bear market risk
16. 9 APR 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - S&P 500 faces a decade of flat or negative returns
17. 16 APR 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - S&P 500 at secular plateau, grim long-term returns
  - Cheap companies exist outside US large caps · CHALLENGES
18. 19 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Market priced for overly rosy earnings growth
  - Equity market priced as a riskless asset
19. 22 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Secular valuation plateau, not a peak
20. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Earnings yield over valuation for market timing
21. 25 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Valuation market timing fails consistently
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- Valuation signals future returns, not timing
7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- Market cheaper on fabulous earnings momentum
8 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
EXCESS RETURNS
- US market in a classic speculative bubble
9 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
WE STUDY BILLIONAIRES - THE INVESTORS PODCAST NETWORK
- Underweight US equities on low expected premium
11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- Strong real economy hurts equity valuations
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- Case for international diversification on valuation

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD