BEARISHSubstantive discussion · 3/5

Elevated CAPE ratio suggests low future returns

The discussion noted that when the Shiller CAPE ratio is above 40, subsequent ten-year real returns have historically been around zero.

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 51 MENTIONS · 41 EPISODES · 18 SHOWS

4 JUL 2025 — 13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO

21 SUPPORT · 9 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 19 MENTIONED

4 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE MEB FABER SHOW
- US household stock allocation at contrarian peak
5 EPISODES BETWEEN · 5 MENTIONS
1. 14 AUG 2025
  THE MEMO BY HOWARD MARKS
  - Elevated S&P 500 valuations signal poor forward returns
2. 5 SEP 2025
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - High CAPE ratio signals weak future returns
3. 9 SEP 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - US large caps overvalued, look elsewhere
4. 19 SEP 2025 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - US tech concentration not a 1999 bubble
5. 7 OCT 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Secular bull markets driven by multiple expansion
10 OCT 2025
THE MEB FABER SHOW
- Elevated CAPE ratio suggests low future returns · THIS IDEA
28 EPISODES BETWEEN · 38 MENTIONS
1. 17 OCT 2025 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Market not in a dot-com style bubble
2. 18 NOV 2025
  THE BUSINESS BREW
  - S&P 500 faces decade of zero returns
3. 21 NOV 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW · 4 MENTIONS
  - High starting CAPE predicts low future real returns
  - US exceptionalism priced too aggressively
  - Valuation changes drive decadal returns, not growth
  - Humility required on valuation mean reversion
4. 22 DEC 2025
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
  - High-multiple tech faces tough double-digit return math
5. 23 DEC 2025 · CHALLENGES
  THE LONG VIEW
  - International equities are cheap relative to the US
6. 24 DEC 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - US stock market in a major valuation bubble
7. 1 JAN 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
  - Market concentration not the issue, valuation is
  - US valuations nearing 1999 peaks
  - Concentration-future return link is noisy
8. 13 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Low double-digit equity returns on positive macro
9. 15 JAN 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Profit story is key for market direction
10. 27 JAN 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 2 MENTIONS
  - US overweight on earnings sustainability · CHALLENGES
  - High valuations don't imply mean reversion
11. 29 JAN 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Index concentration not a reliable predictor of returns
12. 30 JAN 2026
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - Case for trimming expensive US large-cap exposure
13. 2 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Shift from US equities to government debt
14. 3 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Anything but market cap weight for US stocks
  - Global diversification as a cure for home bias · CHALLENGES
15. 6 FEB 2026
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - S&P 500's high PE may be a new normal
16. 9 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - US market valuation debate: CAPE vs ERP
17. 13 FEB 2026
  THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Valuation is the key long-term return predictor
  - Equity returns are not normally distributed
18. 17 FEB 2026 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Bull market continues, driven by earnings not multiples
19. 25 FEB 2026
  THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  - PE multiple compression as 2024 market story
20. 5 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Shiller CAPE signals low future stock returns
21. 30 MAR 2026
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - European equity repatriation story oversubscribed
22. 3 APR 2026
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - Prepare for modest returns and long bear market risk
23. 9 APR 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - S&P 500 faces a decade of flat or negative returns
24. 16 APR 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - S&P 500 at secular plateau, grim long-term returns
  - Cheap companies exist outside US large caps · CHALLENGES
25. 19 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Market priced for overly rosy earnings growth
  - Equity market priced as a riskless asset
26. 22 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Secular valuation plateau, not a peak
27. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Earnings yield over valuation for market timing
28. 25 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Valuation market timing fails consistently
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- Valuation signals future returns, not timing
7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- Market cheaper on fabulous earnings momentum
8 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
EXCESS RETURNS
- US market in a classic speculative bubble
9 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
WE STUDY BILLIONAIRES - THE INVESTORS PODCAST NETWORK
- Underweight US equities on low expected premium
11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- Strong real economy hurts equity valuations
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- Case for international diversification on valuation

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD