Tariff shock overestimated due to refunds, evasion
The guest argued the economic shock from the 2025 tariff hikes was less severe than feared because much of the revenue was refunded and trade partners found ways to evade or circumvent the duties.
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You've read the thesis and who argued it. A free account opens the argument, what validates it, the risks the show raised, and the moment in the episode where it was said — 3 ideas in full a day, no card.
The story so far
CONTESTED · 42 MENTIONS · 36 EPISODES · 19 SHOWS
24 JUL 2025 — 26 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY
11 SUPPORT · 4 CHALLENGE · 1 UPDATE · 2 REPEAT · 24 MENTIONED
- MACROVOICES
29 EPISODES BETWEEN · 35 MENTIONS
- THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT · 2 MENTIONS
- THE BUSINESS BREW
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH · 2 MENTIONS
- THE LONG VIEW
- MACROVOICES
- THE MEB FABER SHOW
- THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
- MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
- THE LONG VIEW
- MACROVOICES
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- MACROVOICES
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
- THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
- THE LONG VIEW
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
- PROF G MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- MARKETPLACE
- MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
- Tariff shock overestimated due to refunds, evasion · THIS IDEA
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD